We can’t ignore this amazing graph that comes courtesy of Quantcast’s latest report into North-American smartphone trends, which surfaced on the internet a few days ago. It shows Apple’s iPhone going DOWN and Android going UP.
Just ignore the MASSIVE GULF that exists between the two. It’s all about the trend.
So if we extrapolate the data for the coming years…
Android WIN by mid-April 2011!
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fruitlesseffort
Oh Kevin, you are either very smart or intensely stupid. I just can’t figure out which.
EURODROID 00001
Thanks, Kev. Nice to know some people are still capable of being SERIOUS about everything.
Billy
It’s a based on current data and trends; he’s not playing the stockmarket. Just a model based on currently available data. Also, Android is still coming into its own and working out the kinks. With this in mind, and being that it’s such a great platform already, the likelyhood that Android will continue to take more market share is quite likely. It’s even more likely since Google seems to be more willing to work with other providers (Adobe Flash for instance) to make the platforms even better. Something that Apple, it seems, is unwilling to do. I believe that Apple, being soooo proprietary and ‘stand alone-ish’, is going to bite them in the butt in the end.
And your point about Apple being around for years already doesn’t hold water for me. Simply because, Yes, they have had three years to perfect and gain ground. Why is it that another phone can come in, and in less than a year already have several features that Apple should have had long ago; being that they’ve been around for years. Seems to me that Android is going to surpass Apple, given the current rate of advancement.
I really am rooting for Android. I’ve tried both IPhone and Mytouch 3G,…I think the Mytouch is a better user experience, and over-all better unit.
VS Dude
Your projection is skewed and is based on only the last two plots in the iPhone data. To correctly project the seemingly downward iPhone trend (assuming the next model doesn’t result in an increase) you must draw a “average” line which passes through the majority paths and extend it to the right. Doing so, I don’t see the iPhone line crossing the Android line until roughly April 2012 – about a full year later than your projection.
Naturally, new product announcements and security breaches and flat out company snafus will have a big impact on these trends – and that’s practically impossible to predict. One thing I do agree with you on, however, is the outcome. Eventually, Android users will make up 50% of the market with iPhone taking the other half and the rest of the field fumbling to acquire partners or buyers or closing shop completely. Even Windows Phone 7 will fade from view in the future.
Peter
Oh boy, who ever did the math, and the trend function on the data is LAME. I wish this to be true, but come on guys, your math is fundamentally flawed. Can you have the person who did this attended an Excel 101?
Gary C
It was just a joke. A little illustration to fill a hole on the page. You boys are clearly as RATTLED and PANICKY as Steve Jobs!
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The trend you say?
So lets compare the trend for Android at a time when they are releasing new handsets every 3 days, and coverage has never been greater, with Apple who have a 3 year old design that is about to be replaced.
What a good idea. Hey, make sure you NEVER play the stock market huh.
Kev